Hello again. It’s been a month, one I didn’t plan on taking off of writing, but life finds a way sometimes. As it turns out, housing insecurity is remarkably disruptive, especially while going through medication changes and quitting a decades-long weed habit I could no longer justify as being supportive of my health. I’ve found stability in the past week, thankfully, and I’m 32 days sober.

I’m back in the saddle for the season, and hopefully many more to come. I’m not ready or willing to set up a paywall after disappearing for a month, though that may be something I do down the line. If you’d like to support me in the meantime, I’ve set up a Ko-Fi page — any tips will go towards maintaining a viable, disability-friendly work-life balance.

Your continued support, whether financial or simply reading the newsletter, is greatly appreciated.

After Sunday’s 69-66 loss to #2 UCLA, Michigan has come within a game-tying three-point attempt of three elite teams: the Bruins, #1 UConn, and #7 Vanderbilt. Unfortunately, all three of those attempts have gone wanting. Their only other loss on the season was the dead-legged back end of a West Coast road trip at Washington, which has since risen into the top 25.

Let’s start with a confession: I expected much, much worse.

If you’d told me prior to the game that Michigan would beat UCLA on the offensive boards 14-9, commit four fewer turnovers, and attempt 13(!) more shots from the floor, I’d have been both perplexed and fully expecting a victory. They even kept 6’7” All-American center Lauren Betts from her usual dominance; she required 17 field goal attempts to score 16 points and didn’t get to the free-throw line.

U-M’s defense, rebounding, and ball control were all enough to win. Shooting, unfortunately, was another story entirely. They went 5-for-21 on three-pointers, and while that was somewhat offset by UCLA going 3-for-13 beyond the arc, a woeful performance around the basket will haunt this team as they watch the tape.

While Betts is a superlative rim protector, she didn’t fully account for the Wolverines making only 11 of 26 attempts (42.3%) at the rim.

Perhaps most frustrating was how often Michigan’s best players couldn’t convert good looks. Syla Swords did a magnificent job of pivoting past Betts on this play only to blow the open layup:

Maybe Betts’ hand-wave at the end distracted Swords but this was far from an isolated incident. Swords finished just 1-for-4 on two-pointers. On the season she’s hitting only 48.4% of her shots at the rim after posting a 59.9% mark as a freshman.

I don’t have a good explanation for the drop-off. I haven’t seen anything to suggest it’s a problem with her shot quality. Here’s hoping it’s one of those weird flukes that levels out over time. I’m tempted to check her stats with and without the mask but that’s getting deep into small sample size theater.

Olivia Olson, normally the team’s craftiest finisher, went 2-for-8 at the rim, a huge dip from her 60.8% season-long mark. She ran into Betts more than anyone else, which is an understandable mitigating factor as the team’s primary late-shot-clock option. On the other hand, this bobble of a feed from Mila Holloway led to an arrrggghhhhh moment:

That’s immensely irritating in a game that came down to the final possession. Unlike with Swords, it’s not something I’m concerned about over the rest of the season.

Despite coming off one of her worst games of the season against Nebraska, Te’Yala Delfosse was a refreshing exception with her finishing. She needed only 19 minutes to score ten points, all inside the arc, and her aggression stood out. This was a great display of her ability to hit layups at full speed after a nifty hesitation at the top of the arc to freeze her defender:

Delfosse is converting 65.9% of her shots at the basket, often with a relatively high degree of difficulty. The game-to-game consistency isn’t there yet. When she’s on, though, she’s a matchup problem even for the best teams in the country.

The good news after Sunday is there’s only one Lauren Betts in the country, and while that’s a huge obstacle to Michigan’s now very outside shot of winning the Big Ten in either the regular season or conference tournament, they hopefully won’t run into her in the NCAA Tournament. I’m a bit concerned about Swords; at the same time, she’s got a long track record dating back to her Team Canada exploits of being a much better scorer at the rim than what she’s shown this season.

That was a lot of words on layups. Let’s try to go over some other takeaways with a little more alacrity.

I’m still extremely annoyed that Ashley Sofilkanich got hit with a phantom fourth foul with 6:45 remaining in the third quarter. Despite being mostly absent from the box score, this was one of her better performances. She was clearly the team’s best option defending Betts, who I’ll reiterate shot under 50% and didn’t attempt a free throw, and she pulled down two offensive rebounds.

Kendall Dudley didn’t fare quite as well defensively, ending a couple possessions with her back fully turned to Betts as shots went up, but she was more of a threat to score. Both posts were helped by timely double-teams, particularly from perpetual pest Brooke Quarles Daniels. Kim Barnes Arico had them mixing up post coverage and that seemed to keep Betts just off-balance enough to not take over the game.

Delfosse also had an emphatic block in the fourth quarter on a great rotation into the post. Again, she’s flashing tremendous talent, it’s just a matter of whether she’s on her game or not. Playing this well against a huge, elite team like UCLA should provide a confidence boost.

Given I expected this to be a disaster area before the game, I’m really encouraged by the post play. Despite giving up a lot of size across the board, they put in a strong effort on defense and out-rebounded the best rebounding team in the country. (Please don’t cite total rebounds, where UCLA’s edge was a product of U-M’s higher volume of missed shots. Offensive rebounds are the stat to look at here and this was UCLA’s second-worst performance of the season by OR%*.)

*Offensive Rebound Percentage is the percentage of a team’s missed shots they rebound themselves. Simple and extremely useful.

Offensive rebounds by 5’7” guard Brooke Quarles Daniels: 6.

Offensive rebounds by 6’7” center Lauren Betts: 5.

She’s almost dead level with Sofilkanich (6’3”) in offensive rebounding percentage and those two only trail Delfosse (also 6’3”) among U-M’s rotation players. I have absolutely no idea how BQD does it. A truly unique player and a delight to watch. Seeing the timeline light up with “Q. DANIELS, BRO” posts only enriches the experience.

This felt like a preview of how Barnes Arico will manage the rotation in the postseason. Sofilkanich got 23 minutes to 17 for Dudley and, quite notably, was reinserted with four fouls near the end of the third quarter, a departure from the more rigid autobench policy we’ve seen earlier in the season. Sofilkanich never picked up a fifth foul. I’m encouraged by both of these things.

Swords, Olson, and Holloway barely left the court. Macy Brown (three minutes) and McKenzie Mathurin (two) each made short, unimpactful cameos in the backcourt. I’m worried Brown’s offensive struggles have made her unplayable against top-tier opponents.

This wasn’t the right spot to see if Mathurin could hold up in extended time. I’m still hopeful that her outside shooting makes her a usable bench option in the postseason. She has the best-looking three-point form on a team that could really use a knockdown outside shooter. They’re running out of season to get her into form, however.

The Wolverines get a bit of a breather before heading to Northwestern on Thursday. The Wildcats are having a down year, sitting at 8-15 overall and 2-10 in the Big Ten with their only conference wins against Rutgers and Wisconsin. They’re on a five-game losing streak and were only competitive against rival Illinois in that stretch. Bart Torvik’s algorithm favors U-M by 27 points on the road.

Michigan returns home on Sunday to face Michigan State, the last game of the regular season in which they’re favored by double digits before a difficult closing three-game slate: at Iowa, at Ohio State, home against Maryland. The only one of these teams U-M has already faced is the Spartans, who they beat at the Breslin Center in an overtime thriller to open February.

This is the big fight for the #2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament behind 13-0 UCLA. The Wolverines and Buckeyes are tied for second in the conference at 11-2, Iowa is 1.5 games back at 9-3, and MSU needs some upsets to get the two-seed at 9-4. While Maryland has lost four of their last six to drop to 7-6 in conference, two of those losses came in overtime and a third was against UCLA — they’re still a dangerous squad.

I’m excited for this stretch run, which will go a long way towards determining if Michigan earns a coveted two-seed in the NCAA Tournament. There will be plenty more coverage here.