Michigan has played their three worst games of the season in a row. After a narrow escape at Oregon, they looked listless in a 64-52 loss at Washington, then fell behind Minnesota in their return to the Crisler Center and couldn’t put the Gophers away until the final moments.

The problems have been almost entirely on one end of the floor. Over this three-game stretch, the Wolverines have shot poorly in every category, turned the ball over more, and had their assists fall off a cliff compared to the first 11 games of the season:

Michigan was already middling from beyond the arc and bad at the free throw line before this ugly set of games. Previously, excellent finishing and crisp passing made up for those shortcomings, but the easy stuff has been difficult this past week.

There have also been extenuating circumstances. Football bowl season and the resulting lack of charter planes meant the team flew out early and spent a week on the pacific coast. Their legs were dead against Washington after playing two overtimes at Oregon, looking like a team that had been living out of a suitcase while their opponents were in their usual rhythm.

Michigan won’t have to do that again. The second games of their two other back-to-back road games on the schedule are within driving distance and they don’t have another trip out West — USC and UCLA both come to Ann Arbor. They also managed to win two of these three games anyway, despite every opponent being NCAA Tournament-caliber.

The situation could be a lot worse. The Wolverines could also be playing a lot better. What should our concerns be moving forward? I’ve tried to organize them into issues I anticipate will fix themselves, ones that look like they’ll be problems all season, and the swing problems I can’t pin down.

The deflated assist numbers over this cold streak are more a reflection of shooting than passing. Assists tend to generate layups and threes; Michigan missed a lot of those. They also committed a number of uncharacteristic turnovers. I’ll spare you the GIFs of Syla Swords getting the ball ripped away from her mid-dribble. Just know they exist and that they shouldn’t be too relevant going forward.

The following play feels representative, as Olivia Olson does a beautiful job manipulating a Te’Yala Delfosse screen before finding Kendall Dudley open in the paint, only for Dudley to blow the layup:

The Wolverines don’t lack for players who can initiate the offense. Point guard Mila Holloway is the best distributor, but three other starters — Brooke Quarles Daniels, Olson, and Swords — can capably keep the offense running. Here’s a tough pocket pass from BQD to split a double-team and give Dudley a layup off a high screen:

The starters cover for a distinct lack of a backup point guard, barring a major midseason breakout from freshman McKenzie Mathurin, who was struggling with turnovers before missing three games in December. While junior Macy Brown is a solid defender with some spot-up shooting potential, earning her the most minutes for a backcourt player off the bench, she’s not a point guard.

So, why the confidence that this will get fixed? Even if no help comes off the bench, Michigan has four players in the starting lineup who can take charge, and that’s more than enough to have at least one on the floor at all times. Olson’s emergence as an excellent passer, in particular, will help prevent major slumps going forward.

While I don’t expect Michigan to only make half their free throws, as was the case over the last three games, this was already the problem most likely to cost the team in the postseason. The Wolverines are shooting only 65% from the free throw line, which ranks them 313th nationally. That’s well below the other teams hoping to contend for pretty much anything.

There is some hope for minor improvement. Holloway, Olson, and Swords are all shooting in the low- to mid-70s from the line after percentages in the high-70s or 80+ last season. Last year’s samples are way bigger and I anticipate their numbers move towards those marks.

Unfortunately, Kim Barnes Arico can’t field a lineup without at least one struggling free throw shooter:

Dudley’s misfires are the most worrisome. She’s easily the team’s best option behind Solfilkanich in the post, and with Sofilkanich committing 5.6 fouls per 40 minutes, Dudley needs to log significant minutes. If Dudley is on the floor, opponents will target her in late-game foul scenarios, and her aggressive attack-the-rim style already gets her to the line with high frequency.

Michigan is shooting 32.5% from beyond the arc, a middling 95th nationally and a significant drop from last season’s 35.9%.

Sure, some of that is replacing Greta Kampschroeder (40% on 105 3P attempts) with Daniels, who doesn’t even take three-pointers, and some middling efforts off the bench. I feel good about this turning around, however, because I don’t believe two of Michigan’s best players got worse over the offseason:

I haven’t had any issue with either player’s shot selection. A lot of good looks are rimming out.

If Holloway and Olson were shooting as well this year as last year, Michigan’s team shooting mark would be 35.3%, almost right on pace with 2024-25. Delfosse is emerging as an outside shooting threat, while Swords is a sniper considering the difficulty of her attempts.

I’d have this in the Easy Fix category if the team had just one more quality shooter, or if Delfosse were taking more shots from beyond the arc while maintaining her accuracy. As things stand, if just one of Holloway or Olson can’t get their shot to click, this will remain a sore spot.

This one is a bit more vibes-based than a numbers thing, as Michigan hasn’t been overwhelmed in the paint, and their two-point defense has been consistently very good.

It feels like it’s on shaky ground, though. Sofilkanich is a good shot-blocker but her aforementioned foul rate has shot up since transferring from Bucknell, where she didn’t face the same level of competition. She can get locked in on her assignment and fail to protect the rim, like the play below where she gives Swords zero help on a screened backcut:

Backcuts for layups were an unfortunate theme in Seattle. On this one, it’s Dudley who fails to help out as Swords gets screened by her matchup:

Sofilkanich and Dudley both got pushed around a bit by Minnesota’s sturdier post pairing of Sophie Hart and Finau Tonga, who shot a combined 6-for-9 from the field and would’ve done more damage if they’d stayed out of foul trouble.

Michigan also ranks a mediocre 71st in defensive rebound rate. Their two most productive rebounders on that end aren’t the two post players but Delfosse and Olson. The boards are evenly distributed after those two, and while that speaks well to the backcourt players hitting the glass, the teamwide approach may not work so well when they face dominant post players.

I’ve come down a little bit from the highs of 40-point beatdowns and nearly upsetting UConn, but only so much. I still believe this team will be hosting a regional come NCAA Tournament time and it’d take an upset for them not to reach the tourney’s second weekend.

Going deeper than that, however, requires a lot going right, and there’s a lot in this post that can keep this program from taking the leap this season — and enough to worry about an early postseason exit if the wrong issue comes forth at the wrong time.

There’s a lot riding on Sofilkanich and Dudley, neither of whom have proved themselves at the Big Ten level. While the three star perimeter players will be this team’s backbone, they’ll go as far as the post players can hold up.