I’m going to start with a confession: I believe in-depth game previews are a waste of everyone’s time.
College basketball, in particular, is a sport of small samples, unforeseeable matchups, clashing gameplans, and officiating that often has an outsized impact on the game. I’m happy to point out players and matchups to watch. Anything beyond that feels like a mostly blind attempt at gambling advice, which I want no part of doing.
Michigan’s week off led to me writing a preview for Sunday’s Iowa game. Given the accuracy of my predictions, I’d have been better off saying that I’ll believe U-M wins in Carver-Hawkeye when I see it. What I thought the Wolverines would do to Iowa was flipped; instead, the Hawkeyes almost flawlessly executed what I anticipated would be U-M’s gameplan.
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From the game preview:
I like Michigan’s chances of winning this game on the margins if they aren’t already doing it with their shooting. …
For Iowa to win, they’ll need to dominate the interior and avoid turnovers. They very much have a path to victory with Heiden, Stuelke (maybe), and Houston attacking the paint, especially if Delfosse is absent or limited. I think Michigan can overcome Iowa’s post offense with timely double-teams and pressure.
Whoops. I expected Michigan to pack the paint on defense and make Iowa pay for having multiple players on the floor who weren’t outside shooting threats. Instead, from the outset, that’s what Iowa did to force U-M into their worst offensive performance of the season — a brutal 44 points and 24 turnovers in 70 possessions.
As far as the Hawkeyes were concerned, Michigan always had two players on the floor they were happy to leave alone on the three-point line. This allowed them to stick tight to U-M’s shooters, overplay Olivia Olson’s forays into the paint, and clean up the glass. Look at how much space they’re giving Brooke Quarles Daniels at the top of the screen as Mila Holloway settles for a contested midrange jumper:
This didn’t go in.
Olson shot 6-for-16 with one assist, three turnovers, and zero trips to the free throw line. You can see Iowa all but ignoring Daniels and Ashley Sofilkanich when they’re away from the hoop, going over the screen to run Olson off the three-point line, and forcing a long midrange jumper late in the shot clock:
Not the worst shot but certainly not the easiest.
Iowa treated Te’Yala Delfosse the same as BQD, and by the time she took advantage by hitting from deep, Michigan was trailing by 11 points deep into the third quarter. Delfosse’s two three-pointers weren’t enough to overcome the offense’s inability to create shots around the basket with the Hawkeyes clogging the key.
U-M couldn’t get their usual offensive rebounding out of anyone except Sofilkanich (5 ORs). While I wish I could chalk that up to BQD’s foul trouble, she grabbed only one offensive board in 17 minutes. Iowa’s post players were also poised to contest those relatively rare second chances.
The impact of Iowa’s strategy is all over the box score:
Let’s break it down:
Michigan had a tough time getting the ball into the paint without turning it over and an even tougher time finishing when they got there. U-M coughed up the rock 24 times for a season-worst 34.1% turnover rate (the percentage of a team’s possession in which they commit a turnover). Their next-worst mark was 27.1% in the season’s second game against Harvard.
Tight on- and off-ball defense on Syla Swords resulted in her shooting 3-for-13 from the field and 1-for-6 on threes. Delfosse was the only Wolverine to hit multiple triples.
A boatload of midrange jumpers and a let-them-play attitude for both sides from the refs meant U-M attempted only three free throws.
U-M converted only seven second-chance points off 13 offensive rebounds, in large part because Iowa usually had multiple tall players hanging next to the hoop to contest the next shot. Two of those offensive boards were loose balls that went out of bounds.
The lack of made shots meant U-M rarely set up their full-court press, allowing Iowa to get into their half-court offense with plenty of time on the shot clock to work the ball into the post.
The Hawkeyes, as they have all season, abandoned the offensive glass themselves in favor of getting back on defense. In a game with a lot of surprising stats, zero Michigan fast break points stands out as shocking.
While Michigan played good enough defense to win most games, it wasn’t nearly enough to offset their offensive woes. The Wolverines didn’t have the size and strength to dissuade Iowa from playing through post stars Ava Heiden and Hannah Stuelke, who kept U-M at arm’s length.
Heiden was the game’s star, scoring 24 points on 11-for-17 field goals with ten rebounds, two steals, and two blocks. She consistently buried Sofilkanich and Kendall Dudley deep into the post before getting the ball, making her shots easy by getting the work done early.
Heiden just had to turn and lay this up for two.
While Stuelke scored just 11 points on 5-for-10 shooting, she was a magnificent distributor out of the high post, using her height and court vision to hand out seven assists — six of which went to Heiden.
Heiden once again puts Sofilkanich directly under the hoop.
Iowa didn’t need much from their starting guards except to space the floor. Only Kylie Feuerbach, who played a spectacular defensive game on Olson, had a remotely efficient offensive outing.
Fortunately for Michigan, most teams don’t possess two complementary post players the caliber of Heiden and Stuelke. The ones that do, however, tend to loom in the later stages of the NCAA Tournament. Opposing coaches are going to do their best to replicate this game; Iowa laid down a blueprint.
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Tournament Ramifications
Iowa (13-3 Big Ten) now controls their destiny for the conference tournament two-seed over U-M (13-3) because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. Ohio State is a game behind at 12-4, while Minnesota is 1.5 back at 12-5.
Michigan could finish anywhere from the two-seed to dropping out of the double-bye entirely with the five-seed. The scenarios, with a huge assist from mred:
U-M gets the two-seed if they win out against OSU and Maryland while Iowa is upset by either Illinois or (much less likely) Wisconsin.
They secure the three-seed if they (1) win out and Iowa wins out, or (2) beat Ohio State on Wednesday, or (3) lose to OSU, beat Maryland, and Michigan State beats the Buckeyes in the regular season finale.
If OSU wins out and Michigan beats Maryland, U-M will fall to the four-seed because the Buckeyes would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Wolverines would also get the four-seed if they lose out and OSU beats MSU because they hold the head-to-head over Minnesota. The Gophers losing their remaining game against Illinois would also secure a top-four seed for U-M.
If U-M loses out, Minnesota beats Illinois, and MSU upsets OSU, then the Wolverines fall all the way to the five-seed. The Gophers would get the three-seed by virtue of being the only team of the three to defeat Iowa and OSU would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over U-M.
Taking care of business against the Buckeyes on Wednesday night would take a lot of pressure off the season finale.
As for the NCAA Tournament, Michigan is still #6 in the NET rankings. Barring a collapse down the stretch, they remain in line for a two-seed.
A Short, Prediction-Free Ohio State Preview
Michigan travels to Columbus for Wednesday’s game (8 pm Eastern, Peacock). I’ll get this out of the way: OSU doesn’t have the skill and size to replicate Iowa’s gameplan, and they’re not inclined to play that style regardless.
The Buckeyes love to get out and run. 5’7” sophomore point guard Jaloni Caimbridge, the former #2 recruit in the country, possesses tremendous athleticism and body control — she’ll make some shots that are hard to fathom, particularly around the basket. She averages 23.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game. I anticipate a very fun matchup between her and Brooke Quarles Daniels.
The rest of the OSU offense is quite balanced, with only sharpshooter Chance Gray averaging double-figure points per game. 6’6” starter Elsa Lemmilä and 6’4” backup Kylee Kitts form a solid one-two at center, but there isn’t a versatile power forward to recreate the problems Stuelke posed on Sunday. They will play together at times but neither is a Stuelke.
OSU prefers to go small, especially as Kitts rounds back into form after a January shoulder injury, with Gray the nominal power forward at 5’9”. Their two featured bench players after Kitts, 6’1” freshman Bryn Martin and 6’0” senior T’yana Todd, have better size if Olson gives the starters too much trouble.
The other player to watch is Jaloni’s older sister, Kennedy Caimbridge, who is the far-and-away leader in the Big Ten with 4.0 steals per game. While OSU isn’t a great halfcourt defensive team, they force a lot of turnovers and take care of the ball themselves, though the margin narrows when they face top-50 opponents.
This game may be determined by which team gets more shots up. OSU is more likely to win the turnover battle; Michigan is a significantly better rebounding team. After last week, I’m not making any predictions. Bart Torvik’s algorithm favors U-M by 4.4 points.