Hello! If you got this, you were once subscribed to The Bucket Problem. I won’t be offended in the slightest if you unsubscribe after a multi-year hiatus and return as something a little different. I also hope you’ll check this out. This team kicks ass.
Somebody has to do it.
I wasn’t planning on writing any time soon. My focus has been, and remains, on my health. But there wasn’t a suitable answer to Ami’s question aside from the Michigan Daily, the steadfast student newspaper.
Michigan women’s basketball is ranked sixth in the AP poll, the second-highest in program history. They’re 8-1 with the lone loss a 72-69 instant classic against #1 UConn in Connecticut’s WNBA arena that left everyone talking about Syla Swords.
In a Big Ten without injured USC megastar JuJu Watkins, Michigan is the biggest threat to deny #4 UCLA the conference title. The sophomore core of Swords, Olivia Olson, and Mila Holloway is augmented by a deep group of up-and-coming role players. Kim Barnes Arico has them playing disciplined ball at a hair-on-fire tempo.
Someone needs to write about this. So, hello again. Welcome back to The Bucket Problem. This is now a free weekly* Michigan women’s basketball newsletter. It comes out whenever it makes sense to publish it. Subscribe or unsubscribe at your leisure.
While I’m disappointed in the rest of the local media scene — COVER THIS TEAM, FOR FUCK’S SAKE — I can’t wait to write about this squad and help fill the void.
*I’m going to do my best to hold myself to this without pushing myself over the limit. Therefore, free and with no promises but I plan to write every week for the duration of the season and see where to go from there.
WHAT YOU MISSED DURING FOOTBALL SEASON
Have you heard about Michigan’s men’s basketball team? The one that keeps boatracing opponents? It’s a lot like that.
The women’s squad already has five wins of 40+ points, including last weekend’s 104-56 thrashing of Purdue in the Big Ten opener. They beat Notre Dame in Wayne State’s gym by 39, the Irish’s biggest margin of defeat under coach Niele Ivey, and bounced back from the UConn loss to win by a mere 26 against Syracuse.
The consistency has been remarkable. UConn was the most impressive possible loss a team could take. Everyone else gets run out of the building. Michigan has hit 100 points four times and only the Huskies have held them below 80.
The Wolverines aren’t just sixth in the AP poll; they’re in the same spot in both Bart Torvik’s and Her Hoop Stats’ formulas. Torvik’s rating has them right there with UCLA, South Carolina, LSU, and Texas as a Final Four contender hoping far-and-away #1 UConn stumbles — and we’ve seen Michigan nearly trip them up in a functional road game.
At some point the trend has to stop but I’ve said the following with shocking frequency since Kim Barnes Arico took over: this looks likely to be the best Michigan women’s team ever. Again.
WHO YOU MISSED DURING FOOTBALL SEASON
Let’s run through the rotation, which is still changing as we begin conference play. Ten players are averaging double-digit minutes through nine games. While the rotation isn’t likely to remain that large, everyone involved right now has something to contribute.
THE STARS WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE. Holloway, Olson, and Swords have been as good as anticipated in their sophomore season.
At the point, Holloway is dishing out a shade under three assists for every turnover. She’s improved her finishing at the basket, which is particularly useful given her 2.7 steals per game.
Holloway was one of the primary defenders on Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo, a national player of the year candidate, as she shot 4-for-21 with seven turnovers in maybe the worst performance of her life. The game slows down for her while she moves fast. She’s the underhyped catalyst of the team.
Olson pours in a team-leading 18 points per game as an efficient three-level scorer who can operate off the dribble or as a catch-and-shoot threat. She’s got the size and strength to finish in the paint and a mean midrange pull-up that keeps defenders off-balance, plus ever-improving court vision and understanding of how to attack defenses.
Olson’s size, effective rebounding, and pesky defense give Barnes Arico the flexibility to start her at the four or the three depending on the matchup.
Swords is the team’s emotional leader, as she showed during the near-miracle finish in Connecticut. If the team needs someone to create her own shot, particularly beyond the arc, it’s Swords time. While her shot attempts and scoring are down from her freshman year, I expect those both to raise with the competition. She still sets the tone with her relentless effort; it’s not uncommon to see her diving on the floor for a loose ball.
A TRUE CENTER. Michigan has usually played with an undersized center under KBA. That’s different this year thanks to 6’3” Bucknell transfer Ashley Sofilkanich, who’s started every game and been a disruptive, if foul-prone, force in the paint on defense. She’s posted 20 blocks and 11 steals despite averaging only 14.9 minutes.
Although Sofilkanich’s 5.7 fouls committed per 40 minutes could pop up as a problem down the road, she had only two fouls in 21 hard-fought minutes in the only close game of the season. Her offense is mostly limited to cleanup work. I need to watch her more closely to get a handle on why her defensive rebound rate is quite low; that’s also been a relative weak point for the team.
THE FIFTH STARTER BATTLE. Four Wolverines have earned starts at the final spot in the lineup and they all bring something different to the table. Here are the candidates in order of minutes per game:
Brooke Quarles Daniels. The player the live stats page delightfully lists as “Q. DANIELS, BRO” puts up some of the funkiest (complimentary) lines you’ll ever see in a box score. In her fifth start of the season, BQD produced one point, two rebounds, two assists, two blocks, and five steals in 25 minutes against Purdue. This is where I should probably mention that she’s a guard generously listed at 5’7”. She’s not out there to score. She’s there to be a menace. This team has plenty of scoring, so she fits this rotation perfectly as either a fifth starter or sixth player.
Te’Yala Delfosse. The other sophomore is beginning to put it together after displaying tantalizing athleticism and talent in her debut season. Delfosse plays taller than her listed 6’3” because of her long arms, strong vertical leap, and instincts. She leads the rotation in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates, blocks more than her fair share of shots, and scores with touch inside the paint. The eyebrow-raiser: she’s hit 8 of 14 three-pointers and 21 of 24 free throws. She has the potential to be the best defender on the team, too. Delfosse is just scratching the surface.
Kendall Dudley. The other other sophomore, Dudley is a more traditional 6’2” power forward who transferred from UCLA after a freshman season that didn’t live up to her five-star recruiting hype — though opportunities were limited on that loaded roster. She’s at her best bullying smaller players in the paint, but she’s now 7-for-25 over two seasons at the free throw line, which will keep her off the floor in close games if she doesn’t have a breakthrough.
Alyssa Crockett. After starting the season’s first two games, Crockett has fallen behind the previous two players in the rotation. The senior stretch four is a capable, not knockdown, outside shooter who takes most of her shots from beyond the arc. She’s probably not going to play 20 minutes in a game very often but she’ll have some key stints here and there, particularly against bigger opponents.
I’m not sure Barnes Arico has to come to a decision here soon or possibly ever. Daniels and Delfosse are such different players that matchups could dictate lineup changes for the duration of the season. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Delfosse forces KBA’s hand by continuing to elevate her game. Q. DANIELS, BRO gives this spot a high floor.
IN THE MIX. Two more players have consistently seen a few minutes prior to the considerable amount of garbage time this team has played.
Junior 6’0” off-guard Macy Brown is out there to hoist threes and play defense. She’s 6-for-14 from downtown: check one. She has a solid 3.5% steal rate and her length is a particularly useful asset when Michigan presses and traps: check two.
Freshman 5’10” guard McKenzie Mathurin, a top-40 recruit, has displayed high-level scoring ability as both a driver and a spot-up shooter, albeit mostly in the aforementioned garbage minutes. Though she’s prone to freshman mistakes, she can handle the ball and keep the offense moving. She’s missed the last two games for reasons I haven’t seen disclosed, so hopefully she’s back on the bench soon.
SHOULD YOU BOOK FINAL FOUR TICKETS
Maybe?
UConn’s average margin of victory in their eight games against not-Michigan is 44 points even though five of those were against tournament-quality opponents. Torvik’s projections have the Wolverines favored in all but one remaining regular-season game, when they host #2 UCLA in early February. The nature of cumulative odds means Torvik only projects Michigan to go [eyes bulge] 15-3 in the Big Ten. Hot damn.
We won’t see the next quality test until the end of the month, when a road trip to Oregon and Washington precedes a home matchup with frisky-but-snakebitten Minnesota. Next up are two Big Ten Plus noon Eastern games, Akron on Saturday and Oakland the following Sunday. Torvik projects both games as [eyes bulge again] wins of 50+ points.
WHERE YOU CAN FIND ME. I hope nobody is still impersonating me on the site formerly known as Twitter because I haven’t had an account there for years. You can catch my posts on Bluesky if you’re so inclined.
WHERE YOU CAN FIND OTHER MICHIGAN WBB COVERAGE BESIDES THE STUDENT NEWSPAPER. I don’t fucking know, man! That’s why this exists!