Michigan is one win away from the program’s second-ever Elite Eight berth. To get there they must beat three-seed Louisville, a team with a remarkably similar 2025-26 resumé. The game tips off on Saturday at 12:30 pm Eastern on ABC.

The Cardinals survived a 15-point deficit in three-point shooting and a fourth-quarter push by Alabama to advance with a 69-68 home-court win on Monday afternoon. Ranked #10 on both Torvik and Her Hoop Stats, Louisville has done an impressive job taking care of the teams they’re supposed to beat.

UL’s seven losses this season have all come against either top-ten teams (UConn, Kentucky, South Carolina, Duke twice) or fellow Sweet Sixteen participants (Virginia and Notre Dame). In fact, all of those teams are still alive in the tournament. They’ve been competitive in almost every game — a 13-point loss to UConn counts as impressive, they lost by ten against UK at home, and their other five defeats came by a combined 13 points.

Much like Michigan, the losses are almost more impressive than the wins. Their best victory is either a ten-point overtime triumph at #16 North Carolina, their eight-point win over the Tar Heels in the ACC semifinals, or an eight-point road win in South Bend. Louisville hasn’t lost to a bad team; they’ve also yet to break through against an elite one.

Even more so than the Wolverines, Louisville features a balanced offensive attack and a tight rotation. Seven players averaged between 8 and 12 points per game this season, but one of them — reserve guard Skylar Jones — left the team prior to the NCAA Tournament after a decline in playing time.

Coach Jeff Walz was rather blunt about his approach in the aftermath [emphasis mine]:

Walz settled into to a six-player rotation against Alabama, nailing 6’3” starting center Anaya Hardy to the bench after some defensive struggles in the opening three minutes. The other four starters played at least 36 minutes.

Unselfish, versatile 6’2” forward Laura Ziegler earned first-team All-ACC honors after transferring from St. Joseph’s for her senior season. A three-level scorer who hits 51% of her twos and 36% of her threes, Ziegler is an effective two-way rebounder and skilled passer. While not an exceptional post defender, she plays extensive minutes because she rarely commits fouls.

She’s joined up front by 6’3” junior Elif Istanbulluoglu, who is indeed from Istanbul. A solid three-point shooter with deft touch around the basket, she scored almost all of her team-high 18 points against Alabama either at the rim or from beyond the arc to go along with 11 rebounds (three offensive) and three assists. While those numbers were all about double her season averages, she’s clearly capable of big games.

Despite standing at 6’0”, sophomore Mackenly Randolph — daughter of former Michigan State standout and NBA All-Star Zach Randolph — is the team’s best offensive rebounder, and she’s been their best player in general during the postseason after absorbing most of Jones’ minutes. In the four games since Jones fell out of the rotation, Randolph has averaged 13.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists, all team bests during that span.

This has been a more prominent role than she played during the regular season and the passing has been a very recent development — 14 of her 53 assists this season have come in the last four games. She’s an excellent rim finisher with a good midrange game, gets to the line more than most of her teammates and hits 80% of her free throws, and is a 33% three-point shooter on low volume.

5’10” sophomores Tajianna Roberts and Imani Berry are the two primary ballhandlers and outside shooting threats. Roberts takes almost half her shots from beyond the arc — she was 4-for-11 on threes against Alabama — and has a quick release that allows her to get clean looks in both halfcourt and transition settings. Roberts is technically the only starting guard, though Hardy is usually replaced rather quickly by Berry for a more balanced lineup.

At 38.1% on 3.9 attempts per game, Berry is UL’s most effective three-point shooter. She’s also the team’s peskiest defender, averaging 1.5 steals in only 23.4 minutes per game. She grabs a decent number of defensive rebounds, allowing her to quickly initiate offense on the other end.

Berry, who won ACC Sixth Player of the Year, almost evenly splits guard minutes off the bench with 5’10 senior Reyna Scott. Scott is more of an attacker off the dribble than a three-point shooter, though she’ll knock down the occasional outside shot. She’s more turnover-prone than the rest of the rotation but helps make up for it with disruptive defense.

That’s pretty much the whole rotation with Jones no longer in the program. Hardy starts but tends to only see 5-10 minutes per game lately. While she’s a great rebounder, strong interior scorer, and the team’s best shot-blocker, she had trouble with Alabama’s speed. She also has the double-edged sword of drawing a ton of fouls but only hitting 38.8% of her free throws, which makes her unplayable late in tight games.

6’3” freshman post Yevheniia Putra and 5’10” sophomore guard Reagan Bender may see a few minutes should foul trouble or fatigue strike. Bender is a spot-up shooting specialist, while Putra has good size but is still figuring out her game. Bender hasn’t played at all in six of the last eight games, Putra in five of the last eight.

“We don’t need a Superman effort from one person,” said Walz in his midweek presser. “We just need good from five or six of ‘em and it could be really impressive how we look.”

It’s difficult to predict who will be Louisville’s best player in any given game. Each of their top six players by minutes played has at least one 20-point game this season. When Ziegler is at center, they can spread the court with five capable three-point shooters and choose which matchups to attack.

That versatility has led to the nation’s #7 offense on Torvik, one spot in front of Michigan. They do everything well except get to the free throw line. When they do get there, they shoot quite well; every rotation player except Istanbulluoglu is at least a 75% FT shooter. Their 8-for-16 mark from the line against Alabama was anomalously poor.

They’re not quite as strong defensively, ranking 26th — Michigan, by comparison, is sixth. While they’re good at clearing the glass and avoiding fouls, they’re not great at stopping teams inside the arc. They’ve suppressed opponent three-point shots most the year but haven’t done so in the postseason, giving up at least 20 attempts in every ACC and NCAA Tournament game. Duke and Alabama scorched them from the perimeter.

The Cardinals tend to force even top-tier opponents to create off the dribble. Only 46.6% of opponent baskets are assisted, a number that actually drops slightly against top-50 teams. Mila Holloway, Olivia Olson, and Syla Swords are going to have to manufacture some offense off the bounce.

This isn’t a nightmare matchup for Michigan. Louisville doesn’t have a huge front line or a dominant post player, which is what I’m most afraid of the Wolverines facing. The Cardinals are still a very tough team to beat because they can have a down game from one or two of their top players and still put together a really good performance.

Michigan isn’t going to be able to overwhelm Louisville with full-court pressure like they did against N.C. State. Pretty much everyone who’ll see the court for the Cardinals is a capable ballhandler with a low turnover rate. Walz is an excellent coach; his Louisville teams are 9-8 in NCAA Tournament games against better-seeded teams.

U-M is a more complete team than Alabama. If they shoot three-pointers like the Tide did, or like the Wolverines did in the second half of the NCSU game, they should win. If they don’t, this is probably going to come down to a handful of late-game possessions.

Torvik favors Michigan by 4.8 points, giving them a 68% win probability. Let’s hope the game plays out to the numbers.

Tipoff is scheduled for Saturday at 12:30 pm Eastern on ABC.

The victor will face the winner of #1-seed Texas vs. #5-seed Kentucky (3 pm ET, Saturday, ABC). The 33-3 Longhorns looked terrifyingly good in their 100-58 pasting of Oregon in the second round, and they’ll have a significant crowd advantage in Fort Worth.

I’ll have a recap regardless of which way Saturday’s game goes and a quick preview tacked on if Michigan wins.