Another year, another historic moment for Kim Barnes Arico and the Michigan women’s basketball team. The Wolverines earned their best NCAA Tournament seed in program history, receiving the two-seed in the Fort Worth 3 region.

While that spot was all but locked in as soon as the Selection Show revealed Duke as a three-seed, the reveal was still a delightful moment to see, especially when Aaiyanna Dunbar jumped into the splits as ESPN cut to the team watch party.

Of the 14 tournament appearances for the program, nine have come under Barnes Arico’s leadership, including eight in the past eight tournaments (there was no tourney in 2020 due to COVID). This is the second time the Crisler Center will host the opening weekend; the last time, in 2022, Michigan advanced to the Elite Eight.

If Michigan plays up to their seeding, they’ll match that 2022 team for the deepest NCAA Tournament run the program has ever made. They got a relatively good draw, as well — avoiding UConn or UCLA as the 1-seed in their region makes a first-ever Final Four more achievable. Here’s a look at the entire region (full bracket with TV times is here):

Texas is a very, very good team, but I’ll take that matchup over the top two seeds or Dawn Staley’s South Carolina squad, should U-M make it that far. While Louisville is a strong 3-seed, West Virginia and Alabama are weaker teams for their seed lines. Kentucky is only one spot behind WVU in Bart Torvik’s algorithm.

I’ll get to N.C. State and Tennessee in a bit. First, let’s look at Michigan’s opener.

With all due respect to — for fuck’s sake, they’re still called the Crusaders? Seriously?

With whatever respect you feel like showing Holy Cross, this should be a rout.

Bill Simmons’ alma mater (derogatory) is ranked 127th on Her Hoop Stats, 161st on Torvik, and 159th in the NET rankings. Their lone game against top-50 competition was a 91-48 loss to Duke, and while Holy Cross was missing their best player for that contest, I don’t believe that’d account for most of the 43-point margin.

The Fightin’ Outdated Pop Culture References also played two games against top-100 squads on Torvik, losing 73-59 at #58 Rhode Island and 61-46 at #67 Harvard. They did win their season opener against a power conference team on a last-second inbounds play…

…but Boston College (#207 Torvik) is one of the worst high-major teams in the country.

You can watch that video to get an idea of what Holy Cross looks like at full strength. You’ll notice they’re a rather small team. Meg Cahalan, their leading scorer and aforementioned best player, is a 6’2” post who can score on the interior and from midrange. She’ll attempt the occasional three but only hits 25% of them and she’s not much of a rebounder or shot-blocker.

Cahalan is the only rotation player who’s six feet or taller. You wouldn’t expect this team to be among the very best in the country at not getting their shots blocked, and yet they are; this seems to be a product of midrange-heavy shot selection. As you would expect, this does not make for a very effective offense.

While decent inside the arc, Holy Cross is a bad three-point shooting team, and they don’t grab many offensive rebounds or draw fouls. Their non-Cahalan players rely heavily on assisted baskets off motion to score; they were a brutal 5-for-17 at the rim against the Blue Devils.

Michigan should be able to contain Cahalan with Ashley Sofilkanich, Kendall Dudley, or even Olivia Olson, sink into the paint to prevent backdoor cuts, and force Holy Cross into a lot of contested midrange shots. The only reliable three-point shooting threat is 5’11 senior Mary-Elizabeth Donnelly, who hits 35.1% on just over four attempts per game.

While Holy Cross is a significantly better defensive than offensive team, their size is a seriously limiting factor. Duke and Holy Cross were very effective at the basket and the Blue Devils rebounded over half their missed shots. The Wolverines can focus on getting downhill and crashing the boards. I expect Olson to have a productive game.