Another year, another historic moment for Kim Barnes Arico and the Michigan women’s basketball team. The Wolverines earned their best NCAA Tournament seed in program history, receiving the two-seed in the Fort Worth 3 region.

While that spot was all but locked in as soon as the Selection Show revealed Duke as a three-seed, the reveal was still a delightful moment to see, especially when Aaiyanna Dunbar jumped into the splits as ESPN cut to the team watch party.

Of the 14 tournament appearances for the program, nine have come under Barnes Arico’s leadership, including eight in the past eight tournaments (there was no tourney in 2020 due to COVID). This is the second time the Crisler Center will host the opening weekend; the last time, in 2022, Michigan advanced to the Elite Eight.

If Michigan plays up to their seeding, they’ll match that 2022 team for the deepest NCAA Tournament run the program has ever made. They got a relatively good draw, as well — avoiding UConn or UCLA as the 1-seed in their region makes a first-ever Final Four more achievable. Here’s a look at the entire region (full bracket with TV times is here):

Texas is a very, very good team, but I’ll take that matchup over the top two seeds or Dawn Staley’s South Carolina squad, should U-M make it that far. While Louisville is a strong 3-seed, West Virginia and Alabama are weaker teams for their seed lines. Kentucky is only one spot behind WVU in Bart Torvik’s algorithm.

I’ll get to N.C. State and Tennessee in a bit. First, let’s look at Michigan’s opener.

With all due respect to — for fuck’s sake, they’re still called the Crusaders? Seriously?

With whatever respect you feel like showing Holy Cross, this should be a rout.

Bill Simmons’ alma mater (derogatory) is ranked 127th on Her Hoop Stats, 161st on Torvik, and 159th in the NET rankings. Their lone game against top-50 competition was a 91-48 loss to Duke, and while Holy Cross was missing their best player for that contest, I don’t believe that’d account for most of the 43-point margin.

The Fightin’ Outdated Pop Culture References also played two games against top-100 squads on Torvik, losing 73-59 at #58 Rhode Island and 61-46 at #67 Harvard. They did win their season opener against a power conference team on a last-second inbounds play…

…but Boston College (#207 Torvik) is one of the worst high-major teams in the country.

You can watch that video to get an idea of what Holy Cross looks like at full strength. You’ll notice they’re a rather small team. Meg Cahalan, their leading scorer and aforementioned best player, is a 6’2” post who can score on the interior and from midrange. She’ll attempt the occasional three but only hits 25% of them and she’s not much of a rebounder or shot-blocker.

Cahalan is the only rotation player who’s six feet or taller. You wouldn’t expect this team to be among the very best in the country at not getting their shots blocked, and yet they are; this seems to be a product of midrange-heavy shot selection. As you would expect, this does not make for a very effective offense.

While decent inside the arc, Holy Cross is a bad three-point shooting team, and they don’t grab many offensive rebounds or draw fouls. Their non-Cahalan players rely heavily on assisted baskets off motion to score; they were a brutal 5-for-17 at the rim against the Blue Devils.

Michigan should be able to contain Cahalan with Ashley Sofilkanich, Kendall Dudley, or even Olivia Olson, sink into the paint to prevent backdoor cuts, and force Holy Cross into a lot of contested midrange shots. The only reliable three-point shooting threat is 5’11 senior Mary-Elizabeth Donnelly, who hits 35.1% on just over four attempts per game.

While Holy Cross is a significantly better defensive than offensive team, their size is a seriously limiting factor. Duke and Holy Cross were very effective at the basket and the Blue Devils rebounded over half their missed shots. The Wolverines can focus on getting downhill and crashing the boards. I expect Olson to have a productive game.

In the likelihood Michigan gets past Holy Cross, they’ll host the winner of N.C. State-Tennessee, who face off at 8 pm Eastern on Friday (ESPN).

The Wolfpack got off to a rough 6-4 start to the season before going 13-5 in ACC play, then fell 81-63 to Notre Dame in their conference tournament opener, their second double-digit loss to the Irish this year.

N.C. State got their spot in the tourney mostly by taking care of business against lesser opponents. They went only 1-8 against top-25 teams in Torvik’s rankings with the lone victory by three points against — well, look at that — Tennessee in the season opener in Greensboro.

That said, the majority of those games were close, with the exception of the ND games and an 18-point loss at Duke. NCSU was just 2-5 in close games, indicating some combination of bad luck and issues in the waning minutes. I don’t see anything in their stat profile that jumps out as a problem in late-game situations; they’re a very good free throw shooting team at 76.2%.

N.C. State boasts four players who average double-digit points, led by Vanderbilt transfer Khamil Pierre, a 6’2” forward who averages 16.8 points and 12.0 rebounds per game. Pierre forms an imposing frontcourt alongside 6’6” center Tilda Trygger (pronounced “TREE-gur”), a solid offensive rebounder and finisher who averages 1.3 blocks per game and can even step out to hit the occasional three-pointer.

Their two primary ballhandlers handle similar workloads with very different styles. 5’10” junior Zoe Brooks gets most of her 16.3 points by attacking the basket and getting to the free throw line. She’s significantly less effective when forced to pull up from midrange and makes only 23.0% of her rare three-point shots.

5’7” sophomore Zamareya Jones, meanwhile, shoots 36.7% on 6.1 three-point attempts per game, has an okay midrange game, and looks to pass more than shoot when she’s near the hoop. Both average around four assists per game.

The Wolfpack take really good care of the ball, which would make for an intriguing matchup against Michigan’s full-court press. On defense, they force turnovers at almost as low a rate as they commit them, instead focusing on being one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country. They’re a merely decent team at preventing buckets, and while they rarely send opponents to the line, that’s fine by Michigan.

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Tennessee began the season 14-3 before a seven-game losing streak — and defeats in ten of their last 12 games — to end the season nearly dropped them out of the tournament entirely. While part of that late slide was due to a difficult schedule, home losses to #42 Mississippi State (77-62) and #51 Texas A&M (82-74) were major blights on their resumé.

UT’s current total of 16 wins would be the program’s fewest in a season since they went 16-11 in 1975-76, which was legendary coach Pat Summitt’s second year at the helm. Their 13 losses have already tied for the most in program history.

Second-year coach Kim Caldwell has the Vols playing an entertaining* style of ball, at least. They play at a high tempo, shoot a ton of threes, and press full-court when they can. To stay fresh, they’ll play ten or 11 players in a game, often subbing out most if not all of their lineup at once. Caldwell has trotted out 20(!!!) different starting combinations with none getting more than three games.

*To neutrals. Caldwell is… not very popular in Tennessee right now.

Eight players average at least 15 minutes per game, led by 6’0” guard Talaysia Cooper at 26.1. Cooper leads the team in points (15.7), assists (3.6), and steals (2.7) per game; she’s a nifty finisher around the basket and shoots 33.7% from beyond the arc on a high volume of attempts.

While the Vols take 45.1% of the field goal attempts from three-point range, they’re not a particularly good shooting team, hitting only 31.0% of them. Long rebounds help them pull down 36.6% of their misses, an excellent mark. They don’t get to the line much and are bad when they do, shooting 67.0% on free throws. (Michigan is at 67.9%; we found a worse high-major team!)

Tennessee boasts a pair of 6’4” forwards in seniors Janiah Barker and Zee Spearman. Barker is a matchup problem as the team’s most efficient three-point shooter, best defensive rebounder, and second-leading scorer. Spearman has struggled with scoring efficiency but tops the team in offensive rebounds (2.9 per game) and blocks (1.3).

The team’s fourth double-digit scorer is five-star freshman point guard Mia Pauldo, whose twin sister Mya Pauldo will also see some time on the court. Mia has struggled to a 29.9% mark on three-pointers while attempting the most on the team on a per-possession basis, but she can finish well when she goes to the hoop and her team-best 85.5% shooting at the free throw line indicates she’s capable of hitting from long range.

5’7” senior guard Nya Robertson will also hoist a lot of threes and makes them 34.6% of the time, so she’ll need to be monitored on the perimeter. She’s a spot-up specialist who rarely ventures inside the arc.

Tennessee relies on their press to force turnovers and lift up what’s otherwise a poor defense for a power conference team. They rank in the 200s nationally in two-point defense, three-point defense, defensive rebounding, and opponent free throw rate. They don’t block a lot of shots, either.

Once their press is broken, easy buckets are there for the taking. Protecting the basketball would be — by far — Michigan’s top priority if they face off against the Vols.

Michigan vs. Holy Cross tips off at 5:30 pm Eastern on Friday evening, televised on ESPN2. The start time for Sunday’s second-round game will be announced after the matchup is set.

Should U-M advance beyond this weekend, I’ll narrow the scope to previewing just the upcoming opponent, then put out a recap and preview combo post between games if they advance.