If Michigan captures their first-ever Big Ten championship in 2026-27, they'll certainly have earned it.

There’s not an easy schedule to be had in the conference, which is more stacked than ever. ESPN’s post-portal bracketology projects 11 Big Ten teams in the NCAA Tournament field — all seven-seeds or better with five top-four seeds earning regional hosting privileges — and two more among the first four out. No configuration of home and away opponents was going to look like smooth sailing.

Even with those caveats, this is tough.

Home/away: Michigan State.

Home: Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Rutgers, Washington.

Away: Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin.

As a general rule, you want your tougher opponents at home and your easier ones on the road to maximize wins. Having Michigan State be the one team they play twice is a relative break, as they’re one of the two teams projected to just miss the tournament (along with Indiana).

Those away games, though? Not a break. Every team on the road slate save Purdue and Wisconsin are projected to make the tournament by ESPN.

USC is a Final Four contender with former #1 overall JuJu Watkins returning from injury to join another former #1 overall recruit in Jazzy Davidson and this year’s #1 overall recruit — plus two more five-star freshmen — in Saniyah Hall. Reigning national champs UCLA lost six players to the WNBA but reload with one of the country’s best transfer classes.

Illinois and Minnesota are programs on the rise that bring back most of their cores; the Gophers add Penn State transfer Gracie Merkle, a great post scorer, to their roster. Maryland is always tough under coach Brenda Freese, while Nebraska has become a fringe top-25 squad.

It’s not all bad news, thankfully. Michigan doesn’t have to travel to cursed Carver-Hawkeye. Avoiding a road game against a potential top-ten Iowa team is almost worth the difficulty of the rest of the schedule; U-M has lost six straight there and last won in 2013, Kim Barnes Arico’s first year with the Wolverines. Building’s haunted.

Washington, which upset the Wolverines in Seattle last year, brings back three of their top four scorers and added N.C. State center Tylda Trygger in the transfer portal. Ohio State returns the Cambridge sisters. Katie Fiso and Oregon should be a tournament team again, while Indiana is looking to break through with a promising sophomore class.

It would’ve been nice to get Northwestern, Penn State, and Rutgers on the road.

The full list of Big Ten opponents is here.

Of the league’s top contenders, I think Iowa got the best draw.

That’s primarily because they get UCLA and USC at home, as their road games are otherwise on the tougher end. Nebraska isn’t the worst draw as their home-and-home; that’s a team they should be able to beat twice.

The other reason I think Iowa got the best schedule of the top teams is that UCLA and USC play each other twice. The two Los Angeles squads have identical conference schedules that also include trips to Maryland, Oregon, and Washington.

I don’t think Maryland is quite at the level of top contender but if so, they get a slightly better draw than the Hawkeyes. While Ohio State is a tough team to face twice, the Terps play Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, UCLA, and USC at home.

Washington’s dark horse contender status is helped by their schedule. Iowa, Maryland, UCLA, and USC all have to go to Seattle. Their home-and-home is Oregon; not easy, but also not the most difficult.

While Minnesota gets the easiest double-play in Wisconsin, they must travel for Maryland, Ohio State, UCLA, and USC. I’m already skeptical of any team that relies on Merkle, a great scorer but an immobile defender, and that schedule doesn’t help my outlook.

Michigan State isn’t a Big Ten title contender but I’m sure you’ll still appreciate knowing they may have the conference’s most brutal slate: Michigan twice plus trips to Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, UCLA, and USC.

Kim Barnes Arico had a double-duty staff position to fill this offseason after assistant coach and general manager Natalie Achonwa announced she’d move on to an assistant coach position with the WNBA’s Seattle Storm in February. Achonwa finished out the 2025-26 season with U-M and is now with the Storm.

In mid-May, Michigan hired a new assistant/GM. Sean Bair has been climbing the ladder since 2013, moving up from being a successful Pennsylvania high school boys basketball coach to his recent two-year stint as a women’s hoops assistant with Penn State.

The press release says Bair spearheaded the player development of PSU’s forwards and post players, which included the aforementioned Merkle, who took a solid leap forward as an offensive threat from her first to her second year in Happy Valley after transferring from Bellarmine. Merkle’s defensive limitations are more a product of her athleticism than anything that can be coached, so her development indicates some good work by Bair.

Bair also has a background in video breakdown and analytics, which is nice to have on staff for both player development and recruiting. It’s hard to evaluate assistant coaches based on press releases but I like this hire on paper.

The protracted timelines of recruiting elite prospects means competing for the best recruits can lag a couple years behind a program’s on-court success. While Michigan hasn’t been a major factor for many five-star prospects the last couple cycles, the deep tournament runs may be starting to pay off on the recruiting trail.

ESPN released an article last week on the contenders for their #1 overall recruit in the 2027, 2028, and 2029 classes. While the focus is more on the prospects themselves than the schools involved, Michigan is mentioned as a team to watch for a few of the best ‘28 and ‘29 prospects:

It’s entirely possible — even probable — that Michigan doesn’t land a single one of the players listed above. Just being in the conversation helps, though. You have to start somewhere.

Photo credit: David Wilcomes/MGoBlog